Europe's fertility rates are in a state of constant decline, and the reasons behind this trend are multifaceted and complex. The total fertility rate (TFR) in the European Union has dropped to its lowest level in over six decades, from 2.62 in 1964 to 1.34 in 2024, and this trend is not unique to the EU. Globally, the number of countries with a TFR below the replacement level of 2.1 is projected to rise significantly by 2050 and 2100. This article delves into the countries with the highest and lowest TFRs, the largest declines, and the factors driving these changes.
The EU's Declining Fertility Rates
The EU's TFR has been below the replacement level since the mid-1970s, and this trend is part of a broader global phenomenon. The World Health Organization (WHO) Europe spokesperson notes that the decline in TFR is expected based on demographic transition theory, where access to education, contraception, and other factors influence fertility trends. However, the EU is not an isolated case, as the number of countries worldwide with a TFR below the replacement level is projected to rise significantly.
Highest and Lowest TFRs in Europe
In 2024, the TFR varies widely across Europe, ranging from 1.01 in Malta to 1.72 in Bulgaria within the EU. Among the highest TFRs are Montenegro (1.75), Bulgaria (1.72), Georgia (1.69), Albania, and Serbia (both 1.64). France, a major economy, has the highest TFR among European countries at 1.61, followed by the UK at 1.56. Germany is just above the EU average at 1.36, while Spain and Italy have the lowest TFRs not only among the largest economies but also the second-lowest overall at 1.10 and 1.18, respectively.
Factors Influencing Fertility Rates
Dr. Julia Hellstrand from the University of Helsinki notes that explaining cross-national differences in fertility is challenging, as many factors that previously influenced variation have weakened. Nordic countries with generous family policies have experienced strong fertility declines, suggesting that policy support alone cannot explain current trends. The WHO Europe spokesperson emphasizes that factors such as affordable housing, dwelling sizes, mortgage considerations, and the cost of having and raising a child influence reproductive decisions. Many governments have implemented policies to enable people to realize their fertility preferences, but the evidence of their effectiveness is uncertain.
First Birth Age and Fertility Decline
Hellstrand also points out that Northern and Western Europe experienced fertility decline below replacement and the postponement of childbearing earlier, in the 1960s, leading to relatively high mean ages at first birth. In contrast, many Eastern European countries experienced these changes later, with somewhat lower mean ages at first birth. The decline in fertility over the past decade has been driven primarily by declining first births, with childfree ideals becoming more common, although many individuals still end up having fewer children than they would ideally prefer.
Fertility Rate Changes Over Time
Looking at the past decade, from 2014 to 2024, only a few countries recorded increases, while many saw significant declines. Turkey stands out with the largest drop, down by 0.69 in absolute terms, or 32 percent, falling from 2.17 to 1.48. Finland and Lithuania also experienced sharp declines, with drops of 0.46, Sweden at 0.45, Ireland at 0.42, Latvia at 0.41, France at 0.39, Iceland and Malta at 0.37, and Estonia at 0.36. Bosnia and Herzegovina recorded the largest increase at 0.21, followed by Serbia (0.18), Portugal (0.17), and Bulgaria (0.10).
Parenting Standards and Uncertainty
Prof. Eva Beaujouan from the University of Vienna attributes the decline in fertility to increased parenting standards, both emotionally and financially, and the growing uncertainty about the future, including wars and inflation, and financial instability. Prospective parents may no longer feel able to offer the best opportunities to more than one child and may choose to wait. The balance between demanding jobs and raising children remains difficult, and people are having children later in life, contributing to a temporary decrease in fertility rates.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Europe's fertility rates are in a constant state of decline, and the reasons are multifaceted. While policies and family support play a role, the broader socio-economic landscape, including housing, mortgage considerations, and the cost of raising children, significantly influences reproductive decisions. The trend of declining fertility rates is a global phenomenon, and understanding the factors driving it is crucial for shaping policies and supporting families in the face of demographic changes.
